Friday, November 25, 2011

Purple Friday, folks! Why LSU wins by more than 2 TDs

Today's "Black Friday" post comes courtesy of my "Guy Who Knows A Guy." You thought he wasn't real, right? WRONG! Not only does he continue feeding me full of information, he also dropped this dime on me today: LSU is going to win by more than 2 touchdowns. Continue reading to get his take on Tigers v. Razorbacks. (Note: And sign I'm not the GWKAG...I like college football, but I don't like it enough to go through all this trouble analyzing it.)

In the meantime, I hope you guys had a very Gaga Thanksgiving. Whatever the fuck that means...

LSU-Arkansas.....lots of texts on thoughts on LSu game tomorrow and pt spread and thoughts. Game sits at 11.5 or 12 pt spread depending on who you talk to. Opened at 14. Why that much? LSU is real good at home and Tiger Stadium is one of the toughest road venues in college football. When Vegas factors Tiger Stadium in, instead of the usual 3 or 3.5 pt addition to the spread added in for the home team, Vegas will go w/ 4-5 pts. The additional points despite Arkansas being just a one loss team.

Here are some stats to back it up and why LSU wins by at least 17 tomorrow.

LSU has rushed for 210 yds per game, avg'ing 4.8 yds per carry. Ark's def has allowed 164 yds per game on the ground and 4.3 yds per tote.

LSU's def has given up just 90 yds per game rushing, 2.7 per carry. Arkansas' ground game - 146 per, which isnt too bad, and 4.6 per carry.

If something gives here, it will be the Hog defense going against LSU's running game. many other teams, including Alabama, a much better defense than Arkansas, stacked the line of scrimmage and the Tigers had success running the football at times.
Richardson and Lacy had 26 carries total for 64 yds when you take away each of their longest runs.

LSU has had success w/ 4 of their staple runs this year and in this order 1) iso, 2) power, 3) zone, 4) counter. If you went back and counted up the running plays, they would tally out in that order. Power and zone would be close.

In the turnover ratio game, LSU is +18 while Ark is +1. LSu forces turnovers on defense, we all know abt Mathieu's exploits, but the front creates pressure and the secondary has the best depth in the country. LSU has only lost 3 fumbles all season on offense, while their QBs have just thrown 3 INTs all year, tops in the country. While people continue to question the ability or usage of the 2 QBs for the Tigers, they have used their talents to help LSU to an unblemished record through 11 games - 1 of 2 of the 120 1A teams to accomplish that feat.

LSU has allowed just 10 pts per game through 11 games, while Ark has allowed 21 pts per. Both offenses have scored around the same amount of pts, w/ the Hogs 1.4 pts better than LSU - both in the upper 30s. Divide the pts for vs pts against and LSU has a 3.79 # while Ark has a 1.86 #. Double the difference.
yards per pass att differential is the passing stat to look at, not yds passing or efficiency, etc. LSU has a 3.10 figure in the category, while Ark has a respectable 1.86 number.

B/c of that yds per pass attempt differential figure and LSU's clamping down on opponents returning punts, the Tigers have enjoyed a big field pos advantage all year. WIng has been as good as any punter in the country w/ any type of kick needed. hairston has been good for a true freshman and the kick cov team has been solid. LSU gives up 1/2 yard on punt returns to opponents, while Ark gives up 11 yds per punt return. If the teams trade 5 punts, LSU would have a 5 first down advantage on paper.

If either team wins the toss, they will defer and put their defense on the field 1st. LSU - b/c their defense is one of the two best in the country. Ark - b/c they lead the nation in touchbacks w/ 34.

So.....1) LSU has a big advantage stopping the run and should do so vs Ark 2) LSU will have an adv running the football against Ark's run defense, which will open up the play act pass, where Tiger Qbs have had plenty of success this season 3) Spec teams continues to win out for LSu w/ their punting and coverage teams 4) LSu will create turnovers on defense, as they have all year and not turn it over. Ark does not create turnovers like LSU does.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You nailed your prediction. Shoulda gone to Vegas with that one...